The first weekend of the Women’s NCAA Tournament didn’t bring any Cinderella-type performances — neither did the men’s — but just like the UConns and South Carolinas of the world, our betting card had quite a weekend.
My first round best bets went 6-1, and I posted to social media some second round plays that went 5-2. 11-3 to kick off the tournament? Yes, please. Let’s see if we can keep that rolling into the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Women’s NCAA Tournament record: 11-3, +7.8 units
Before we get into this week’s card, I think it’s important to note the impact of JuJu Watkins being out for the remainder of the tournament for top-seed USC. My model projects Watkins as one of the best players in the country and is worth a lot to the spread in their matchup against Kansas State. In fact, USC goes from a top-five team in the country to somewhere in the teens with her out of the lineup. Books were a little slow to open a number on this game as they tried to figure out that impact, and bettors will be doing the same. This brings us an opportunity with so much uncertainty.
Sweet 16 best bets
North Carolina vs. Duke under 124.5 (-110)
An under in an intense rivalry game during the Sweet 16? That sounds like a good time. My model has this game pegged in the mid-110s….
