We all remember what happened in the women’s NCAA Tournament last year. But the women’s side of March Madness was so packed with thrilling moments that most of us probably don’t remember all of what happened: Amid Iowa’s unthinkable defeat of South Carolina and LSU’s dramatic title run, does anyone really recall wins by No. 12 seed Florida Gulf Coast, No. 12 seed Toledo or No. 11 seed Mississippi State?
Well, we analyze upsets, so we do. And we are here to put them all in context and tell you there’s a statistical reason the women’s game is breaking out into enormous popularity: its tournament has achieved a perfectly entertaining mix of dominance and chaos.
South Carolina will sit atop the women’s bracket, and there’s no way to argue that the Gamecocks aren’t the best team in the country without violating the laws of physics and math. Dawn Staley’s crew excels at every phase of the game and are even better at some areas than last year. (Example: They are shooting 39.7 percent on 3s, the third-best rate in the NCAA, up from 171st in 2023.) We estimate South Carolina has a 37 percent chance of winning the tournament, which is a remarkable number — double the odds for Houston, the team our model says is the best team in the men’s tournament this season….
