It wouldn’t be March Madness without upsets, and the 2025 postseason has gotten off to a good start with surprises aplenty in the conference tournaments. William & Mary won the CAA as the ninth seed; James Madison lost the Sun Belt title despite being undefeated in conference play; a pair of San Diego schools (UC San Diego and San Diego State) won their conference crowns as No. 4 seeds; and Oregon State took down the top two seeds in the WCC for an automatic bid a year after the Pac-12 collapsed, threatening the Beavers’ program in the process.
But the women’s NCAA Tournament isn’t as upset-friendly in the early rounds as conference tournaments. Host sites give the top-four seeds an extra advantage, and for all the talk of parity, that doesn’t necessarily extend to the full 68-team field. In 2024, there was one first-round upset and three more in the second round for a ratio of one every 12 games. That picked up in the later rounds on neutral sites, as half of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were upsets by seed.
As we look at the first round of this year’s NCAA Tournament, keep in mind that chaos isn’t terribly likely, and maybe that’s for the best in the long run so that the rest of the tournament will deliver marquee matchups. For now, here are five…
