South Carolina begins its quest to repeat as the national champion, while UConn is trying to reclaim the throne atop women’s college basketball for the first time since 2016. But neither are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. In fact, UConn isn’t even a one-seed, but the Huskies are the second-most likely champion — behind South Carolina — per oddsmakers.
Who else is a threat? Well, the top seed in the tournament is UCLA, which is the third-most likely team in the odds. Texas and USC round out the top five most likely champions. Notre Dame comes in next at +900 to win the title, and the next listed team, NC State, is at +3500. As you can see, the women’s tournament is very top-heavy.
So what’s that mean for the futures market? For starters, there is going to be very little value. With the top teams being so much better than teams in a tier below them, upsets are pretty rare. In fact, just three teams below a No. 5 seed have made the Elite Eight since 2021, and no team seeded below a No. 3 seed has made the Final Four since 2016. Part of this reason is because seeds 1-4 get home-court advantage in the first two rounds, but it’s mostly driven by a lack of parity at the top of the sport.
2025 women’s basketball national title odds
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