Compared to the men’s bracket, the women’s NCAA Tournament traditionally has held less chaos when it comes to upsets. Case in point, all four regions in the women’s tourney produced just one upset (No. 11 Middle Tennessee over No. 6 Louisville). Even all four of the No. 8 seeds topped all four of the No. 9s. Could that change in 2025? If this year’s underdogs prove feistier than usual, some of the biggest and most recognizable programs in the women’s game (including Caitlin Clark’s alma mater, Iowa) could be at risk of going home early.
Bracket Breakers uses metrics to forecast NCAA Tournament upsets, and this is the third year we’re applying our statistical tools to the women’s game as well as the men’s. This is a matter of basic fairness — it’s absurd how far and for how long the analytics of many women’s sports have lagged behind their male counterparts. But it’s also a practical decision. Women’s basketball is rapidly gaining and dispersing talent, creating better teams around the country — and theoretically leading to greater parity and more upsets — while interest in the sport is rocketing. So, over the coming weeks, we’ll be looking to see which teams can upend the usual suspects and bring surprise excitement to the big dance.
We analyze…
