Third Shot Drives: What Happens Next

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One of the things we try to do with Pickleball Statistics is add specificity to general assumptions. For example, the “third shot drive/fifth shot drop combo.” How often does that actually happen in PPA play? 

Breakdown of the Study

I watched the most recent tournament, the Orange County Cup, played in San Clemente, California on June 30. For this study, nine high-profile matches: the two semifinals and final in each of Men’s, Women’s and Mixed Doubles. Those nine matches had 371 third-shot drives. Here’s the breakdown: 

371 third shot drives. Subtract 27 errors and winners on those drives, and 344 rallies continued.

344 third shot drives in play. The receiving team made 35 errors and winners on their fourth shots, so 309 rallies went to a fifth shot.

309 fifth shot opportunities. The most common option was a drop shot, either as a volley or on a bounce. 203 were hit by either player on the serving team, which is 66 percent of the 309 opportunities.

The second-most common option for a fifth shot was a firm volley, either by the player who hit the third shot drive or his/her teammate, such as a “shake and bake” or the player who drove the ball following his own shot. There were 98 firm volleys, or 31 percent of the 309 fifth shot…

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