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The hardest part of running training theory is that every athlete is their own N=1 study. We have individual inputs–training volume, intensity, etc. We have individual outputs–time to exhaustion, VO2 max, race results. But the line connecting input to output will always be a best guess, because we have way too many confounding variables (age, stress, training background, muscle fiber typology) and no way to look under the hood to see exactly what’s happening (humans prefer not to be dissected).
Even for a single athlete using different training interventions over time, there is not enough data to reliably infer what causes what. That training plan could have caused a world championship. Or it could have been the base built in that lower-intensity approach a year ago, mixed with better fueling, all combined with an optimal day in the menstrual cycle.
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So how do we know what works?
Well, we do have a baseline understanding of physiology. While humans vary substantially, we’re all a similar assortment of semi-organized chemical interactions that love…
