With the nationals field now set, there’s one question on the minds of any gymnastics fan: Who will win the 2023 NCAA gymnastics championship? Looking at the data, there may be a straightforward answer– a strong vault rotation. Time and time again, vault has proven to be the critical rotation for any team in the hunt for a national championship. Similarly, less-than-stellar vault performances have been the Achilles heel of many teams looking to enter the winners’ circle. Let’s look at how things like start value and landings impact NCAA final standing and see if we can use this newfound knowledge to predict the 2023 national final.
Start Value
Since the Yurchenko full was lowered to a 9.95 start value before the 2016 season, four of the six national champions have been the team with the highest vault rotation score, and no team has won a national championship while receiving the lowest score on vault– despite teams winning titles while getting the lowest rotation score on other events. This is a reasonably obvious phenomenon regarding start values. A full rotation of 10.0 start values– like that seen by 2021 champions Michigan and 2022 champion Oklahoma– has a .250 advantage over a full counting five-vault rotation of Yurchenko fulls. Since the start…
