Compared to the men’s bracket, the women’s NCAA Tournament traditionally has held less chaos when it comes to upsets. Case in point, all four regions in the women’s tourney produced just one upset (No. 11 Middle Tennessee over No. 6 Louisville). Even all four of the No. 8 seeds topped all four of the No. 9s. Could that change in 2025? If this year’s underdogs prove feistier than usual, some of the biggest and most recognizable programs in the women’s game (including Caitlin Clark’s alma mater, Iowa) could be at risk of going home early.

Bracket Breakers uses metrics to forecast NCAA Tournament upsets, and this is the third year we’re applying our statistical tools to the women’s game as well as the men’s. This is a matter of basic fairness — it’s absurd how far and for how long the analytics of many women’s sports have lagged behind their male counterparts. But it’s also a practical decision. Women’s basketball is rapidly gaining and dispersing talent, creating better teams around the country — and theoretically leading to greater parity and more upsets — while interest in the sport is rocketing. So, over the coming weeks, we’ll be looking to see which teams can upend the usual suspects and bring surprise excitement to the big dance.

We analyze…

Entering Sunday’s women’s NCAA Tournament bracket reveal, there was a looming question about who would be the field’s top seed. In a season full of parity, SEC tournament champion South Carolina and Big Ten tournament champion UCLA had strong cases.

The Bruins, however, were given the No. 1 overall designation.

The Gamecocks were still one of the four No. 1 seeds, and they were joined by Texas and USC on the No. 1 line. Around the group is a deep field. No singular dominant team emerged in the 2024-25 season. Four programs held the No. 1 spot in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, tying the record most recently set in 2021.

The Bruins (30-2) hope their momentum continues into the field of 68. Last weekend, UCLA captured its first conference championship since 2006, defeating USC in the third matchup between the two Los Angeles powerhouses. With the victory, UCLA, which had spent 12 consecutive weeks atop the AP poll, eclipsed 30 wins for the first time in program history.

Junior center Lauren Betts leads the Bruins in points (19.6), rebounds (9.7), blocks (2.9) and field goal percentage (63.4 percent), having emerged as the program’s All-America-level focal point. Coach Cori Close’s team is one of the most experienced in the field, with seven of its eight most-used…