(Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Pencils down, please.

This is the final guess on what the NCAA selection committee will do before it finally gives the answers we crave tonight in one of the best moments each year in American sports. Late curveballs happen, and Colorado State unleashed one by deciding to just go out and win the whole darn Mountain West tournament. The runner-up, Boise State, also has been on a tear, and the projection here is a league that benefits from both runs and gets five teams in the field of 68.

That would be more than the Big East and ACC. And it comes here at the expense of the best conference — Texas falls to the first team out, dropping the SEC’s record number of bids to 13 (poor SEC). Xavier and North Carolina also finish just out of the field. It’s certainly possible that any of those three teams could slide in at the expense of Boise State. Indiana, too, could end up on either side of the bubble.

Debate the numbers and what should matter most all you want. Just remember, the people who are picking these teams start with those conversations and then dig deeper on every team….