Today, we will finish our first-round NCAA Tournament previews with a look at the second day of matchups and potential upsets in women’s March Madness.

A reminder: Our statistical model Slingshot, developed with help from the Furman University Mathematics Department, begins by estimating the strength of all Division I teams according to their scoring margin per 100 possessions and their strength of schedule. We then adjust those basic power ratings for how strongly teams carry traits associated with successful tournament teams of the past. For underdogs, these characteristics generally include tactics that widen the variability of a team’s play, such as shooting lots of 3-pointers and working to force turnovers. For favorites, it’s just the opposite: Higher seeds cruise to wins when they cut risks and avoid chaos. Then we estimate matchup results. We still don’t have the same depth of historical data for women’s basketball as we do for the men’s side, but we’re getting there.

Now, on to Saturday’s games!

More Bracket Breakers: Upset projections for Friday games

Odds are from BetMGM. For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. For all our March Madness coverage, check out our content hub. 

No. 6 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 11 Arizona Wildcats

Upset…

Selection Sunday has come and gone, and if your favorite team landed in the Albany 2 Region, my sincerest apologies.

At The Athletic, we have you covered with all the big-picture details of the bracket, including the paths to the Final Four for last year’s national finalists as well as South Carolina, who enters as this year’s favorite. But the fun of filling out a bracket (you can print ours here) isn’t just figuring out the Final Four teams; it’s knowing which 11th-seeded team will upset a power conference program and which underdog can silence a hosting team’s home crowd.

You can’t have the Big Dance without Cinderella, and thankfully, there are several candidates in this year’s field waiting to try on that glass slipper to see if it fits. Here’s a look at some double-digit seeds who are threats to spring early-round upsets.

No. 11 Texas A&M

I just can’t quit Texas A&M. The Aggies featured in my preseason top 25 — a prediction that did not age well as they lost five of their final six SEC games and failed to enter the rankings for the entirety of the regular season. However, when Texas A&M is at its peak, it can contend with talented opposition. The Aggies boast double-digit wins over Kansas, Ole Miss and Tennessee, and they stayed within 11 points of South…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

We are officially less than a week away from Selection Sunday. Let me rephrase that; we are five days away from going from Bracket Watch to actually watching the bracket being built. With this being my first foray into bracket-building and seeding, it means something a bit different to me this year.

In a way, I’ve been building up my own resume and body of work every week, working to tweak what I’m doing, improve my process, and work to be more in line with how the committee seems to be viewing things. We’ve got a wealth of great coverage from The Athletic women’s basketball staff on the way, including ramping up to daily Bracket Watch articles through Sunday.

If this is your first edition, welcome! This is a great time to get in, as the cement is starting to set at the top although the bottom of the bracket is still liquid. Conference tournaments are taking place all week, so be on the lookout for daily games if you’re looking for a hoops fix during your lunch breaks.

The Big 12 championship can still shake up some things. The Summit, Horizon and WCC are each in their final…

More than a half-dozen conference tournaments have already started, meaning the first bids for the 2024 women’s NCAA Tournament are just days from being claimed. As the action progresses and weekday gameplay turns into weekend competition and spots in the field of 68 are solidified, The Athletic will deliver a daily briefing to update you on the most important results.

We’ll bring you games to watch and analysis of key results, anecdotes from tournament sites and everything you need to know. Check back for updates from Thursday’s action. If there are things you, the reader, want to see during conference tournaments or as NCAA Tournament play begins, please let us know in the comments.

Keep a close eye on …

As conference tournament play continues, pay particular attention to what’s happening in the Pac-12 and Atlantic 10. Last March, seventh-seed Washington State ran off four consecutive wins to claim the school’s first conference title. The Cougars’ run was undoubtedly a surprise. But it wouldn’t be shocking to see Colorado or Utah, two programs that won their conference tournament openers Wednesday, go on similar runs and win four straight — though doing so would involve upset victories Thursday.

Pac-12 high stakes

Five Pac-12 schools ranked in the AP top five…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Power conferences understandably dominate discussion, particularly Bubble Watch talk, this time of year. All the teams fighting in the middle, yearning for resume-supplementing wins, provide some of the most notable matchups and storylines.

However, it’s worth pausing and noting some of the more under-the-radar seasons in the country, especially the programs that we are trending toward hearing about in March. I can think of few teams more deserving of that mention than Marshall.

The Thundering Herd are 20-6, a standout record on its own but even more notable when recognizing this is the first time since the 2016 season they have eclipsed the 20-win mark and just the second time since they left the Southern Conference in 1997. This is West Virginia native Kim Caldwell’s first season at the helm in Huntington. She led her alma mater, DII Glenville State, for seven seasons, including a national championship in 2022. In her first foray as a head coach at the highest level of collegiate basketball, something special is brewing.

Find it your local newspaper #WeAreMarshall