Looking for the chalkiest region in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Our model thinks it’s likely to be the East. Only two of six Bracket Breaker games have an upset chance of greater than 10 percent, and no team has more than a 28 percent chance of springing an upset.

Below is a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. We’ve already examined the Midwest and the West and will break down the South on Wednesday and every potential second-round matchup. To qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover the 8/9 or 7/10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to bet — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your tolerance for risk. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this piece.

And now, onto the upsets!

More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | Midwest Region Preview | West Region Preview | Women’s Top 10 Upsets

Odds are from BetMGM. For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. For all our…

By Tess DeMeyer, Joe Vardon and Jason Lloyd

Duquesne’s NCAA Tournament bid, which was already historic given it’s the Dukes’ first time at the big dance in 46 years, just got an added dash of sentimentality as coach Keith Dambrot announced Monday that he will retire at the end of the season.

The news comes a day after the Dukes beat VCU in the Atlantic 10 championship to secure their spot in the bracket.

The Last Dance.

After 26 years as a head coach, Keith Dambrot will retire at the end of the season. pic.twitter.com/PE3AsJfDoP

— Duquesne Basketball (@DuqMBB) March 18, 2024

Dambrot got his first Division I head coaching job at Central Michigan in 1991, though he only lasted two seasons. After a stint coaching at a Jewish Community Center, he got hired by St. Vincent-St. Mary’s High in Akron in 1998. There he guided a team led by a teenaged LeBron James to two state titles before leaving to become an assistant at Akron. He eventually became the Zips’ head coach and went 305-139 in 13 years, where he often won or finished high in the standings but lost in the league tournament.

He made the move to Duquesne in March 2017 and considered retiring last summer to take care of his wife, Donna, after she was diagnosed with breast cancer. The Dukes finished the 2023-24…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

During the season in this space, we often like to begin with a bit of pop culture or history or some other random bit of nonsense unrelated to college basketball. So, uh, is it OK if we just do that for the entirety of this final installment?

Because we’re going to be totally transparent here. For the first time in six years of making mock brackets for The Athletic, we go into Selection Sunday with no earthly idea of what the selection committee is going to do. Oh, sure, there are always small surprises, but for the most part, the field is obvious except for maybe one slot.

Not this year. After one of the wildest Championship Week Saturdays we can remember, which included two power-conference bid thieves and a still-hard-to-believe outcome in the American, we find ourselves utterly confused by the bubble. And whether North Carolina will hold on to that final No. 1 seed or if surging Iowa State will take it. At least we’re not alone:

Been doing this since 2006. It’s never been this hard for the committee, not only because of how close so many of these teams are, but because of the…