Welcome back to Bracket Breakers, where we are excited to keep extending our search for upsets in the NCAA women’s tournament. This year, the potential Cinderellas on the women’s side are more interesting than ever, with more bracket-breaking weapons in their arsenals. Today we’re breaking down which of those teams has the highest chance to beat an overdog in Friday’s first-round games.

As on the men’s side, our statistical model Slingshot, developed with help from the Furman University Mathematics Department, begins by estimating the strength of all D-I teams according to their scoring margin per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule. We then adjust those basic power ratings for how strongly teams carry traits associated with successful tournament teams of the past.

For underdogs, these characteristics generally include factors that widen the variability of a team’s play, such as shooting lots of threes and working to force turnovers. For favorites, it’s just the opposite: higher seeds cruise to wins when they cut risks and avoid chaos. Then we estimate matchup results.

Before we continue, two observations and one caveat. First, as we’ve mentioned, while parity is increasing in the women’s game, and there are more viable contenders for the…

After a season full of historic performances, thrilling finishes and record-breaking television viewership, the 2024 women’s NCAA Tournament field is set. Undefeated South Carolina is the top seed, with Iowa, USC and Texas the three other programs on the No. 1 line.

All four have their sights set on Cleveland, the site of this year’s Final Four, but they aren’t alone in being potential contenders. Before the first round begins Tuesday night, here’s a look at everything you need to know to help with your bracket and prepare you for the tournament.

How good are the No. 1 seeds?

This year’s crop of No. 1 seeds features some of the best coaches and players in the country.

South Carolina (32-0)

Albany 1 Region

The Gamecocks’ roster turned over in the offseason, with its famed “Freshies” core (led by star center Aliyah Boston) graduating and moving to the pro ranks. This year’s squad has an entirely new starting lineup from the group that was undefeated heading into last year’s NCAA Tournament. Still, the 2024 SEC champions had the nation’s best defense and the No. 2-rated offense in the regular season. Coach Dawn Staley, our unanimous Coach of the Year pick, leaned on South Carolina’s depth, with nine players averaging double-digit minutes. Take particular note…

The Athletic has live coverage of Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal. 

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Pure. Chaos.

Madness came early on Saturday, leaving a trail of stolen bids, burst bubbles and flummoxed bracketologists in its wake. Now? Selection Sunday is here.

We know we have four legit bid thieves: NC State in the ACC, Oregon in the Pac-12 and two more coming Sunday in the A-10 and AAC. Drake’s upset over Indiana State in the MVC title game might end up as a fifth functional bid thief. Wild.

Get your March Madness printable bracket

The bracket reveal is mere hours away. In the meantime, we’ll do our best to calculate the bubble math and take stock of an absolutely wild day of college hoops.

Here’s my best estimation of where things stand entering Sunday:

• There are 32 automatic qualifying bids via conference champions. There are 36 at-large bids. Total of 68.

• At least 21 of those 32 conferences will be one-bid leagues, including the Ivy League championship between Brown and Yale on Sunday. So let’s start with 21.

• Give at least four bids to the ACC: AQ and three at-large locks….

The Athletic has live coverage of Selection Sunday and the Women’s NCAA Tournament bracket reveal

The final full day of conference tournaments has come and gone, and wow, what a jam-packed slate. We ultimately came away without any upsets that would put a potential at-large bid in question, but we witnessed some great games and competition.

For the first time since 2002, Kent State is headed to the NCAA Tournament. California Baptist, in Year 6 as a Division I program, earned its first ticket to the Big Dance. Norfolk State matched last season’s win total and tied its program DI record with 26 wins this season after punching its ticket to the tournament as well, back for a second straight year. Fairfield won its 31st game of the season, outlasting Niagara in one of the most frenetic games of the past few weeks to secure its trip to March Madness.

Get your women’s March Madness printable bracket

In the most anticipated game of the day, Princeton won the Ivy League championship comfortably, likely denying the possibility of the Ivy as a two-bid conference.

So on Selection Sunday, as we dive into our final Bracket Watch, a quick thank you for following along. We have a wealth of tournament coverage coming as the brackets are revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) on the selection show. You…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Conference tournaments are here and Selection Sunday is nigh, which means Bubble Watch is in full swing.

One day before the bracket is revealed, bid thieves are the big storyline. We know we will already have one in the Atlantic 10 with Dayton out of the mix. Three more are lurking between now and the selection show: North Carolina State in the ACC, Oregon in the Pac-12, and anyone other than Florida Atlantic in the AAC. How those shake out will be critical for a bubble that is nearly at capacity.

NCAA Senior Vice President of Basketball Dan Gavitt suggested on Saturday morning that there were “at least another four or five spots” up for grabs as far as at-large bids. That might be overstating it a tad, and will of course depend on how those possible bid thieves shake out, but there are clearly still decisions to be made.

“We have 35 at-larges out of the 36 voted into the field”

NCAA Senior Vice President of Basketball, Dan Gavitt, joins @TheAndyKatz to explain the scrubbing process and give a seed line update! pic.twitter.com/RIMaSEuHRQ

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB)

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

It only took until the day before Selection Sunday, but finally we can say for sure who the top eight seeds will be in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

With Tennessee and Arizona losing on Saturday and North Carolina advancing to the ACC tournament, the Tar Heels will join Purdue, Houston and UConn on the top line. The only minor intrigue left there is whether Houston passes Purdue for the No. 1 overall seed.

Tennessee and Arizona will be on the No. 2 line, along with Marquette and Iowa State. The Cyclones beat Baylor to reach the Big 12 title game and have more than made up for a lackluster nonconference slate, while Marquette got to the Big East final without All-America point guard Tyler Kolek. Given the Golden Eagles’ impressive resume and insistence that Kolek will be back next week, a No. 2 seed is in order.

Clarity comes at the top, and the bubble continues to come into focus as well. Mississippi State and Texas A&M locked up spots by beating Tennessee and Kentucky, respectively. New Mexico beat Colorado State in the Mountain West semis and should be safely in. Colorado finally gets over…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Conference tournaments are here, and Selection Sunday is nigh, which means Bubble Watch is in full swing.

I’ll be making regular, daily updates to Bubble Watch from now until the bracket is revealed, so be sure to bookmark this page and check in all week as conference tourneys heat up and the NCAA Tournament field comes into focus. As soon as relevant games in each conference wrap up, I’ll have fresh thoughts on what it means for those teams and any other bubble watchers impacted by the results.

I’m in Kansas City covering the Big 12 tournament, but I’ll do my best to update things in real-time, and I’ll try to hop into the comments and answer questions as well. Even the mean ones.

An important note: An expanded “Movement” section for each conference will be refreshed as often as necessary, while the corresponding team charts will be updated each morning with accurate records, NET rankings and other metrics.

We’ll keep track of the number of auto-qualifiers as they roll in, whether or not there are any “bid thieves” among them, and how the math is shaping up for the rest…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

With just a few days until Selection Sunday, much of the bracket is set. Outside of the upcoming Ivy League championship, no other mid-major conference tournament is likely to influence the at-large bids, with perhaps the exception of Middle Tennessee.

Though some teams are essentially locked into the field because of their strong resumes, which teams have the most ability to fluctuate in seeding?

You can look at many and say, “Yeah, that’s a tourney team,” but also simultaneously be unsure of where that team may concretely be seeded. I have projections and ideas, but with how open-ended the criteria for seeding is, that leaves room for intrigue when looking at a select few cases.

Multi-bid conferences

What makes West Virginia so hard to judge?

The Mountaineers had a stellar…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Conference tournaments are here and Selection Sunday is nigh, which means Bubble Watch is in full swing.

I’ll be making regular, daily updates to Bubble Watch from now until the bracket is revealed, so be sure to bookmark this page and check in all week as conference tourneys heat up and the NCAA Tournament field comes into focus. As soon as relevant games in each conference wrap up, I’ll have fresh thoughts on what it means for those teams and any other bubble watchers impacted by the results.

I’m in Kansas City covering the Big 12 tournament, but I’ll do my best to update things in real time, and I’ll try to hop into the comments and answer questions as well. Even the mean ones.

An important note: an expanded “Movement” section for each conference will be refreshed as often as necessary, while the corresponding team charts will be updated each morning with accurate records, NET rankings and other metrics.

We’ll also keep track of the number of auto-qualifiers as they roll in, whether or not there are any “bid thieves” among them, and how the math is shaping up for the…

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Conference tournaments are here and Selection Sunday is nigh, which means Bubble Watch is in full swing.

I’ll be making regular, daily updates to Bubble Watch from now until the bracket is revealed, so be sure to bookmark this page and check in all week as conference tourneys heat up and the NCAA Tournament field comes into focus. As soon as relevant games in each conference wrap up, I’ll have fresh thoughts on what it means for those teams and any other bubble watchers impacted by the results.

I’m in Kansas City covering the Big 12 tournament, but I’ll do my best to update things in real time, and I’ll try to hop into the comments and answer questions as well. Even the mean ones.

An important note: an expanded “Movement” section for each conference will be refreshed as often as necessary, while the corresponding team charts will be updated each morning with accurate records, NET rankings and other metrics.

We’ll also keep track of the number of auto-qualifiers as they roll in, whether or not there are any “bid thieves” among them, and how the math is shaping up for the…