The Sweet 16 in the women’s NCAA Tournament is almost entirely built of the top four seeds in each region. Only three teams (No. 5 Colorado, No. 5 Baylor and No. 7 Duke) won on the road in the second round to advance to the Sweet 16. My model projects the likelihood of upsets now that we’re in the tournament’s second week.
South Carolina is, of course, the overwhelming favorite. The Gamecocks won the national title in 42.4 percent of my simulations. They made the Final Four more than 70 percent of the time.
My projected favorite in the other regions are Texas, UConn and UCLA. UConn is only the No. 3 seed in Regional 3 in Portland, but No. 2 Ohio State lost in the second round and my model does not rate USC as highly as its No. 1 seed.
UCLA is the favorite in Regional 2 in Albany ahead of No. 1 seed Iowa. The Hawkeyes are a strong favorite against Colorado in the Sweet 16, but would be an underdog in my model against either UCLA or LSU in the Elite Eight. That region is balanced among the top three teams with Iowa, UCLA and LSU all making the Final Four in more than 25 percent of my simulations.
Before getting into the numbers, it’s worth explaining what you’re looking at. I created a college basketball model to project the outcomes of games. I take several metrics into…
