As you prepare to fill out your annual N.C.A.A. tournament bracket, grimly determined not to throw away your entry fee yet again, you might be tempted to seek help. There are plenty of articles, websites and message board posts out there that presume to offer the secret to making winning selections.
Unfortunately, some of the most widely circulated tips are unhelpful at best and actively terrible at worst. Here are some things you might have heard from a friend or read on some dodgy sports betting site that may not be as useful as you think.
Research all the teams thoroughly, evaluate their strengths and weaknesses, and look for injuries.
While researching all 68 teams in each of the men’s or women’s basketball tournaments isn’t going to hurt, it’s mostly going to be a waste of time. Knowing the name of the point guard at Drake, or Cleveland State’s rebounding rate, just isn’t going to help very much, and any wonderful statistical nugget you do unearth is unlikely to give you a meaningful edge given that you have to predict 63 games (assuming your pool skips the play-in games).
As for injuries, the only ones that really matter are major injuries to very significant players.
The tournament is known for upsets. Don’t rely on favorites.
This isn’t great advice for a…
