After yesterday’s shocking upsets that knocked out the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds from the national championships, it’s only right to update our simulator for Four on the Floor. LSU and Florida were previously given a combined 40% chance to win the national title, so it’s worth taking another look at each remaining team’s chances according to our model. We re-ran the simulator 10,000 times and added scores from the semifinal into the pool available to the model. We did not change any parameters from our post-regionals run, with later season scores being prioritized over early season, scores from injured athletes being less likely to be chosen, and road scores being more likely to be used than home scores.
Team Results
The table below shows the percentage of model runs in which each team won the national title.
| Team | Percentage of runs |
| No. 2 Oklahoma | 80.52% |
| No. 4 Utah | 9.21% |
| No. 5 UCLA | 8.73% |
| No. 7 Missouri | 1.54% |
Oklahoma was already the simulator’s favorite going into nationals, and the loss of LSU and Florida has increased the Sooners’ chances accordingly. Utah and UCLA again find their chances very close, with Utah given the slight edge this time. This is flip-flopped from the model runs prior to the semifinals, when UCLA had slightly higher…
