Now that regionals competition has wrapped up, we ran another 10,000 simulations of our postseason model, this time featuring only the eight teams that have punched their tickets to nationals, to get updated probabilities for each to bring home the title. For background on the model methodology and to view the pre-regionals results, see our article on the 2025 postseason simulator. For these runs, we removed the scores from injured athletes, weighed scores from March and April more heavily than scores from earlier in the season, and also prioritized road scores over home scores. We also tracked how often individuals won each title over the course of the 10,000 runs!
Team Results
| Semifinal | Team | Finalist | Top 3 | Top 2 | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma | 97.70% | 94.92% | 84.32% | 56.77% |
| 1 | Florida | 79.40% | 60.32% | 30.92% | 10.53% |
| 1 | Missouri | 16.78% | 6.59% | 1.21% | 0.09% |
| 1 | Alabama | 6.12% | 1.55% | 0.20% | 0.01% |
| 2 | LSU | 93.54% | 88.47% | 69.45% | 30.03% |
| 2 | Utah | 42.12% | 19.95% | 5.78% | 1.00% |
| 2 | UCLA | 45.28% | 22.23% | 6.89% | 1.40% |
| 2 | Michigan State | 19.06% | 5.97% | 1.23% | 0.17% |
For the first semifinal, Oklahoma and Florida are clear favorites, with Missouri a bit more likely to pull an upset than Alabama. It’s not surprising…
