After a shocking day of semifinals, we’re doing something we’ve never done before: updating our simulator for Four on the Floor. Oklahoma was previously given over 80% chance to win the national title, so the Sooners’ absence in the final has an astronomical impact on our model. We’ve re-run the simulator 10,000 times and added scores from the semifinal into the pool of scores available to the model. We did not change any parameters from our post-regionals run, with later season scores being prioritized over early season, scores from injured athletes being less likely to be chosen, and road scores being more likely to be used than home scores.
Team Results
The table below shows the percentage of model runs in which each team won the national title.
| Team | Percentage of runs |
| No. 2 LSU | 53.22% |
| No. 3 California | 24.64% |
| No. 4 Florida | 12.51% |
| No. 5 Utah | 9.63% |
It’s not surprising to see LSU emerge as the favorite in these results, given that the Tigers posted the highest score in the semifinal and now have eight 198-plus team scores on the season, including six of their last seven meets. Cal is capable of matching LSU’s scores but has not been as consistent over the last month, posting only one score over 198.000 in its last five meets. Florida and Utah’s…
