Now that regionals competition has wrapped up, we ran another 10,000 simulations of our postseason model, this time featuring only the eight teams that have punched their tickets to nationals, to get updated probabilities for each to bring home the title. For background on the model methodology and to view the pre-regionals results, see our article on the 2024 postseason simulator. For these runs, we lowered the impact of injured athletes, weighted more recent scores more heavily than scores from earlier in the season, and also prioritized road scores over home scores. For the first time, we also tracked how often individuals won each title over the course of the 10,000 runs!
Team Results
| Semifinal | Team | Finalist | Top 3 | Top 2 | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | 97.78% | 87.64% | 60.40% | 11.51% |
| 1 | Arkansas | 9.21% | 2.00% | 0.14% | 0.00% |
| 1 | California | 91.17% | 67.02% | 30.06% | 4.66% |
| 1 | Stanford | 1.84% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 99.32% | 98.79% | 95.73% | 82.31% |
| 2 | Florida | 45.14% | 21.39% | 6.97% | 0.83% |
| 2 | Utah | 42.15% | 19.56% | 6.21% | 0.67% |
| 2 | Alabama | 13.39% | 3.43% | 0.48% | 0.02% |
Based on the numbers above, it’s clear that the second semifinal is expected to be more competitive than the first, mainly for the second advancement spot after…
