Data Deep Dive: Simulating Conference Championship if Realignment Hadn’t Happened

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Schools changing conferences occasionally isn’t unheard of in the NCAA, but the major conference realignment that has occurred, and likely will continue to occur over the next few seasons, has truly taken the NCAA by storm. Only two gymnastics conferences consist of the same teams as two seasons ago largely due to realignment along with the introduction of new teams and the loss of others. For a long time, the conferences in college gymnastics remained mostly consistent and regionally distributed. Now some conferences span the entire country and long-standing rivalries have been lost with new ones hoping to take their place. If realignment had never happened, how would conference championships shake out this year? We used the CGN meet predictor to simulate “old” conference championships using this season’s scores. The simulator was run 10,000 times to calculate an average predicted score and win percentage.

Please note, the NCGA-East and the WIAC are not included in this analysis because their respective conference championships have already concluded. Scores from the final week of regular season competition also weren’t included.

Big 12

Team Average Score Win Percentage
Oklahoma 197.976 99.69%
Denver 196.802 0.31%
Iowa State 195.459 0%
West…

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