Now that regionals competition has wrapped up, we have run another 10,000 simulations of our postseason model, this time featuring only the eight teams that have punched their tickets to nationals, in order to get updated probabilities for each to bring home the title. For background on the model methodology and to view the pre-regionals results, see our article on the 2023 postseason simulator. As in our initial runs, we lowered the impact of injured athletes and counted more recent scores (i.e., March and regionals scores) more than scores from earlier in the season.
Results
| Semifinal | Team | Finalist | Top 3 | Top 2 | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | 84.02% | 69.88% | 47.70% | 18.95% |
| 1 | LSU | 30.23% | 11.72% | 4.11% | 0.74% |
| 1 | California | 69.39% | 44.52% | 20.36% | 5.21% |
| 1 | Denver | 16.36% | 4.43% | 1.16% | 0.10% |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 89.43% | 84.35% | 75.94% | 58.42% |
| 2 | UCLA | 45.10% | 34.17% | 19.09% | 5.75% |
| 2 | Utah | 60.30% | 48.92% | 31.11% | 10.79% |
| 2 | Kentucky | 5.17% | 2.01% | 0.53% | 0.04% |
Based on the numbers above, each semifinal features a dominant team with over an 80% chance of becoming a finalist — Florida with an 84% chance in the first semifinal, and Oklahoma with an 89% chance in the second. Having upset then-No. 2 Florida to win the Pittsburgh regional…
