It’s hard to believe that the 2025 season has come to a close! To try to fight the withdrawal, we’ll be reliving NCAA nationals this week routine by routine, looking at every team’s chances of advancing to the final or winning the championship. In this article, we’ll be diving into semifinal two, but be sure to also check out the dives into semifinal one and the national championship (coming soon!).
You’re probably already familiar with our postseason simulator, but if you want a refresher on how that works, check out the methodology here. To determine the chances of advancing throughout the meet, we re-ran the simulation 10,000 times after each routine, in the order that the scores appeared on the broadcast, simulating only the remaining routines of the meet.
The results of our simulations are in the chart below. The first point for each team represents its probability of advancing before the meet started and each subsequent point is the new probability of advancing based on the most recent routine. In the rotation-by-rotation charts, there will always be a probability for “routine 0”, which represents the probability of advancing after the final routine of the previous rotation.
This chart emphasizes how truly…
