Regardless of what happened in the national championship game, and any way you want to analyze it — strategically, dynastically, commercially — Iowa’s 77-73 win over South Carolina on Friday night was a watershed moment for women’s basketball. And especially for the study of underdogs in the women’s tournament.
Way back on March 23, we claimed that this year’s tournament was already giving us the best brew ever of dominant teams and upset victories. And that was before Miami pulled off its second deep upset, to say nothing of the Hawkeyes’ Final Four shocker. Nine teams defeated opponents seeded at least three slots higher in this tournament, and the national championship game featured a 2-seed and a 3-seed. The women’s game has never seen anything like this level of chaos.
Neither analytics models nor betting lines gave Iowa much of a chance to end the Gamecocks’ 42-game winning streak. Our colleague Austin Mock pegged the probability of an upset as 7.2%, HerHoopStats said 16.6%, and South Carolina opened as a -675 favorite on the moneyline.
Dawn Staley’s crew played to its key strength as well as ever: SC had 26 offensive rebounds. In our Bracket Breakers analysis, hitting the offensive glass constantly surfaces as the single best thing a favorite can do to…
